Talk by Prof. Fernanda Marquez-Padilla
Rolling Back Progresa: School and Work After the End of a Landmark Anti-Poverty Program
November 24, 2025, 14:30 h
Andreasstrasse 15, 8050 Zurich, AND 3.46 (3rd floor)
Mexico’s conditional cash transfer program Progresa served as a model for evidence based development policy for over two decades. We estimate the school and work impacts of its sudden rollback. Comparing high- and low-penetration areas before and after rollback, we find that the loss of benefits decreased school enrollment, particularly for boys. In high-penetration areas, rollback reduced enrollment and raised employment in high-school-aged boys by 12 and 8 percentage points, respectively. Employment was concentrated in industries offering good wages for recent dropouts but relatively poor wages at older ages, consistent with rollback-induced dropout being costly for boys over their lifetimes.